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Why Khamenei Is Betting on Trump

May 14, 2025

Since mid-April, diplomacy between Tehran and Washington has shifted into overdrive. After a seven-year freeze, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made a stunning, if not entirely surprising, reversal: He has greenlit a new nuclear deal…

5 key factors shaping Iran’s foreign policy calculus

May 1, 2025

Iran appears to be reorienting its approach to diplomatic engagement with its neighbors and the West by prioritizing the economic benefits of cooperation. While Iran’s overtures to the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China bear watching, they may signify pragmatic moves in the expectation of short-term benefit rather than deeper ideological changes in posture.

Could Russia support US-Iran negotiations?

April 18, 2025

On April 12, the United States and Iran wrapped up their first round of renewed diplomatic talks in Muscat, with round two set for April 19, in Rome. But the real breakthrough will not come from nuclear talks alone — it will require confronting the region’s most explosive fault line: the Iranian-Israeli standoff. Russia claims it can help.

Thinking the unthinkable: Improved US-Iran relations under Trump?

April 18, 2025

It is no surprise that both Iran and the United States have approached their first diplomatic engagement in four years with wariness and skepticism. While not an insuperable hurdle, it is hard to overcome more than 40 years of mutual enmity. Both parties have set the stage with characteristic bellicosity.

Iran’s “Look East” Policy: Ideals vs. Harsh Realities

April 16, 2025

The Iran-Russia-China partnership is often portrayed as a cohesive bloc resisting U.S. hegemony. While there is some truth to this narrative, it is frequently overstated. A closer look reveals a relationship driven more by pragmatic opportunism than ideological solidarity or durable alliance.

President Pezeshkian: Already a lost cause?

March 27, 2025

President Masoud Pezeshkian might be the loneliest man in Iran. Just eight months into his term in office, he is already losing the support of those who once championed him. Some sympathy is warranted. Still, Pezeshkian is not helping his own case. Elected on promises of reform, he has spent most of his time retreating.

War of words as Turkey-Iran tensions escalate over Syria, Iraq

March 18, 2025

After decades of managing tensions through careful balancing, Turkey and Iran now find themselves increasingly at odds following recent shifts in the regional balance of power.

Beyond “Maximum Pressure” in US Policy on Iran

January 30, 2025

In his second term in office, President Donald Trump faces a Middle East undergoing multifaceted upheaval and an Islamic Republic of Iran currently in its weakest and most isolated position since the founding of the regime in 1979.

Khamenei’s American reality check

November 21, 2024

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the main question in Tehran is not so much what the incoming American president will do about Iran. Rather, it is about whether Tehran should negotiate with him.

The Islamic Republic, the most unpatriotic in Iranian history?

October 23, 2024

Iran’s leadership is still not ready to admit what many view as the inevitable need for a foreign policy course correction. Regime talking points notably suggest that the conflict with Israel is not an ideological decision but an unavoidable struggle over the national interest.

How Trump and Harris compare on Iran

October 17, 2024

Whatever path Harris or Trump take on Iran, the best way forward is to work in closer alignment with its partners in the Middle East and build a stronger consensus at home

Polling on Iran’s foreign policy

October 17, 2024

That Iranians overwhelmingly believe that the country’s foreign policy is the cause for the economic problems of ordinary citizens is accepted even among many of the regime’s diehard supporters. Nor is it surprising that many Iranians, particularly among the youth, are pessimistic about the future of Iran and are looking to emigrate.

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